Would you believe someone that said they could tell if a dog was aggressive or timid by the color of its coat? I wouldn’t and I doubt you would either. So, after doing a little reading, here is my two cents on the topic . . .
Grey iron is a mixture (alloy) of primarily iron, with carbon, silicon, phosphorus, manganese, and sulfur. These elements are present in small amounts (a few percent) to traces (a few hundredths of a percent). These ratios probably have not changed significantly over the past century or more. I would expect that there was enough variability in the composition of iron in the 1860s – 1920s that today’s grey iron (what Lodge uses) falls within those ranges. The carbon content of grey iron was, and still is, in the range of 3 to 4 percent and is composed of graphite flakes.
Iron oxide is iron + oxygen. The iron exists can exist in the ferrous (Fe++) and ferric (Fe+++) oxidation states:
* Fe2O3 is hematite. It is ferric iron. It is orange-red.
* Fe3O4 is magnetite. It has two ferric and one ferrous iron. It is black
* FeO is wustite. It is a non-stoichiometric mixture of 85 - 95 Fe atoms per 100 O atoms. It is grey.
* FeO(OH) is iron oxide-hydroxide. It is ferric iron. Its color ranges from yellow to brown.
Water molecules are a part of what is generically called rust, and it plays a part in the appearance of rust. For example, FeO(OH)[ch8729]n(H2O) is Lepidocrocite and is the rust found in water pipes. Different oxides of iron can also exist together on one rusty specimen. So, it appears to me that rust on a skillet can exist as a mixture of more than one, and possibly, many different forms. And this is without the complicating factors like pH and other chemicals, such as sulfate, carbonate, and chlorides, that may be present.
My conclusion is that iron doesn’t rust any differently today than it did 150 years ago. Oxides of iron exist in different colors or shades of colors. I would be very skeptical of anyone that said they could date a pan by looking at the rust. The variations of rust we see in hollowware are primarily a function of the environmental conditions that caused the metal to rust and how long it has been rusting.
As Sandy said, there are better ways to determine what is a reproduction. Come to a convention and see all of the repro and fake pieces in the WAGS collection for yourself. You will be much better prepared to identify a fake by actually holding and inspecting known fakes than by reading garbage on the internet.